FX DELIGHT

NZ central bank held key interest rate at 3% Thursday

2010-09-16T10:49:00.000+08:00

WELLINGTON, New Zealand: New Zealand's central bank held its key interest at 3 percent Thursday, noting a 7.1-magnitude earthquake 12 days ago had caused substantial disruption to the economy that will continue for some time.

The Reserve Bank also said that the domestic economy remains weak, with the household sector cautious, soft consumer spending and credit demand, and falling house sales.

The rate hold follows two successive quarter-point increases that lifted the rate to 3 percent from its record low of 2.5 percent, where it was held for 13 months to counter the worldwide recession.

"While the global and domestic economies continue to recover, the outlook has weakened since our June statement. We consider it appropriate at this point to keep the OCR on hold," said Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard.

"The earthquake that struck Canterbury on Sept. 4 has significantly disrupted economic activity and is likely to continue to do so for some time yet," he said in a statement.

Bollard also noted that expansion in the global economy appears to have slowed, "with forward indicators of US growth, in particular, deteriorating noticeably."

Despite the weakened outlook, the bank said it still expects that growth will progressively absorb current surplus capacity over the next few years.

But it signaled a clear slowing in the pace of rises in its official cash rate.

"Over time, it is likely that further removal of monetary policy support will be required," Bollard said. "The pace and extent of further OCR increases is likely to be more moderate than was projected in the June statement," he added. - AP

Week 104: Gained 7.2%

2010-09-12T19:30:00.001+08:00

Only two trades this week after four consecutive weeks of losses. Not in the right condition to trades most of the time. Reasons being unable to find right opening and low confidence level after so many blows. Gained 6.7% or 80 pips from USD/CAD pair on Wednesday at GMT13:01 after a major CAD news announcement.

Week 103: Loss 9.4%

2010-09-12T19:03:00.008+08:00

With August trading month coming to an end, I almost undone everything I have gained in the month of July. Stopped all trading activities from Sept 2. Taking a break and regroup my mind and body in preparation for the exciting Sept. Have to be at ease, relaxed and confident with myself. Overcoming oneself before you face the trading world.

Week 102: Loss 14.9%

2010-09-01T22:18:00.003+08:00

Another disappointing week. With 6 substantial losses and only two scalped win. Recorded a double digit loss in percentage this week. Again the restlessness and recklessness reigned my emotions during trading. Desperate to overturn last week losses, I lost control of my trading rules. Lose your mind lose your money. Learn the lesson!

Week 101: Loss 2.6%

2010-08-21T22:46:00.003+08:00

Started the week on a bad footing. Made two substantial losses from the first two trades of the week. Lost 4.5% from GBP/USD pair followed by another 3.9% loss from GBP/JPY pair made me fearful that my winning run might come to an abrupt end. Subsequent trades were made in desperate measures without clear trading signals. Managed to salvage back some losses from few scalp trades along the way. Unfortunately the consecutive winning week had to come to an end.

Week 100: A 0.6% gain.

2010-08-15T22:00:00.002+08:00

The Week 100 ended with 0.6% gain. Total pips gain was 10. Most of the trades were scalps with the biggest win coming from EUR/JPY with 2.1% gain on 11 August 2010 while the biggest loss comes from USD/JPY pair with 3.5% loss a day earlier. Managed to scalps few wins to claw back to green territory.

However, there are two open trades with negative result. Real time portfolio result were not that encouraging. Have to wait till next week to see the result.

Where is the confidence?

2010-08-11T23:16:00.003+08:00

Had 5 trades so far, one win, one loss and 3 scalped win. Overall this week portfolio was down a little. And the running trade, NZD/JPY from last week is still open, currently down approximately 190 pips. Real time status for this trade is -12%. Did not managed to get out when it was at a smaller loss. Unwilling to accept the loss and ended up constipating the trade. Managed to recover some losses from yesterday USD/JPY trade that cost me 3.5% of my portfolio. Shorted EUR/JPY today at GMT5:37 at 111.733 without any profit target set. And closed it with only 24pips profit to recoup 2.1% of portfolio. The pair managed to hit the low of 109.764 at GMT14:00 for additional 170+ pips. The trend look rock solid for a downtrend but I was sceptical. I was not confident enough.

Week 99: 11.7% Gain

2010-08-07T23:55:00.005+08:00

Had a decent run this week, this time posting a 11.7% gain. Total of eight trades, one loss, 3 wins and 4 winning scalps. The NZD/JPY from Thursday is still running and currently at -35 pips. Had a roller coaster ride during the NFP. The risk aversion sentiment were strong and JPY strengthen across the board. Thought of having to long another JPY crosses after it swing wildly but had to forgo the intention as I have this trade still running. Equaled my record of fifth consecutive profitable week. Hope to extend the winning run.

Midweek review, 6 win 1 loss, 1 running.

2010-08-05T11:19:00.002+08:00

Closed 7 trades so far this week. Significant win comes from AUD/JPY pair, with two trades contributing 5.5% and 4.8% respectively while one loss from GBP/USD erasing 3.8% from the portfolio. Managed to close another profitable trade yesterday, USD/JPY with 59 pips that contributed 3.5% to the portfolio. Current portfolio now stand at -33.5% notwithstanding current open trade, NZD/JPY now at -19 pips.

Week 98: Gained 4.6% w.o.w.

2010-08-02T17:03:00.003+08:00

Another week of gain achieved. This time only 4.6% and total pips of 60 only. No significant big win achieved this week. Only managed to scalp here and there, with the biggest win coming from AUD/USD pair with 2.6% during midweek.

Week 97: Gained 22.5%

2010-07-24T21:52:00.003+08:00

Had a fantastic week. Biggest weekly gain so far. Total pips gained is 324 and added 22.5% to my portfolio. Two of the biggest win comes from AUD/JPY pair, 6.5% and 12.4% respectively. Scalped few trades here and there. One significant loss come from GBP/USD trade that cost me 3% of portfolio. Have to be careful with the SL placing and the entry timing. Hopefully more to come next week.

Week 96: 2.5% Profit from AUD/JPY

2010-07-23T00:19:00.002+08:00

Only three trades for the week, two small profits and one break even. All three trades are AUD/JPY pair. Got hooked with this pair as it could earn interest when you leave it overnight. Although the winnings are small as I was trying to get familiar with this pair. Hopefully there will more winnings with this pair.

Week 95: 10% Profit

2010-07-23T00:11:00.002+08:00

No trade after closing the AUD/JPY with 80 pips. Overall the week ended with 10% portfolio growth. Now at -54.5%, still a very long way from my target. Only three trades this week and all ended up with profit although the AUD/JPY trade was open from the weeks before. My mind was not focused on trading and I had made some poor decisions. Took a break the rest of the week. Like a football player need a winter break, hopefully I could come back fresher and more focused.

AUD/JPY: 80 pips

2010-07-08T18:27:00.003+08:00

Managed to close this trade with 80 pips profit after holding onto it for 9 days. There were no SL and this is the most daring of all my trades so far. In fact I went it against the market trend. And at one point the trade went as far as -350 pips. It does not justify the risk you have to take when only got 80 pips profit. At that point, I was running out of strategy, idea and motivation. Should have stop for a while, I guess.

Week 94: Loss 8.1%

2010-07-08T18:17:00.003+08:00

Suffered third consecutive week of losses. This time its 8.1% of portfolio. After 94 weeks of trading, to be honest, my weekly closing of positive portfolio lasted only 4 weeks. The rest are all losses. Talk about consistency, winnings, control, etc...I wonder how long before I can even break even. It will be 2 years in another 10 weeks. The dream of financial success, passive income generating portfolio, it seems there is no light at the end of the tunnel. The market has been too unpredictable. I have been too emotional. Only thing left is dream...

AUD/JPY trade that went wrong

2010-06-29T23:33:00.006+08:00

Had a chance to break my losing streak but the trade ended up break even. Shorted GBP/USD at GMT6:01 and exited at GMT6:58 with no win. The trade had went to over 20 pips at one point and I thought to myself, lets just take this but I never listen. Adjusted the SL to BE and let it run and it hit BE less than an hour later. Later in the day, longed AUD/JPY even though all technical indicators are still very bearish. I was anticipating a reversal after seeing the pairs dropping since early morning. I think I have lost all common sense to trading. I was too emotional and I need a break.

Bad Monday

2010-06-29T19:43:00.003+08:00

Suffered another big loss on Monday. Total of 3 trades with 2 of them closed with small profit while the third trade ended with 6% loss. Felt like the longest losing streak. Longed EUR/USD before the signals are clear enough. I was assuming the reversal would happen as what happen few times last two week at around GMT7:00 but what happen last time is not necessarily repeat in the same way. Felt like every trade I entered turn against me. Felt like the market is suffocating me. Felt helpless. HELP!!

Week 93: Not so good week

2010-06-26T21:33:00.003+08:00

Had a not so good week where most of my trades ended up in losses. Thought of quitting trading. After one year of being in the real estate industry, the income has been inconsistent though the time has been flexible. And my trading has been inconsistent too. Lost 3% from my portfolio this week, leaving me with only 45% from my initial capital. Total of 7 trades this week, 1 break even, 3 wins and 3 losses. The magnitude of the losses are bigger than the winnings, hence the negative outcome.

GBP/USD: 5 pips

2010-06-21T21:49:00.004+08:00

Shorted both EUR/USD and GBP/USD today. EUR/USD was forced out at BE while the later closed manually with 5 pips. Was not in form lately.

Week 92: Losing week.

2010-06-20T11:43:00.004+08:00

Suffered major setback this week. Failed to notice the changes in the trend. Was too focused on the smaller time frames that I totally ignored the long term trend developing. Lost 12.5% this week from my portfolio. Very frustrating result. When I thought I have developed the consistency in my trading, boom, bad week happen, knock the wind out of my sails.

EUR/USD: Lost 47 pips

2010-06-16T15:45:00.002+08:00

Shorted EUR/USD at GMT 7:38 yesterday and lost 47 pips in approximately 2 hour. Effectively reduced my portfolio by 4.2% from this loss alone. Trade diagnosis: entered too early, did not wait for the confirming signal, the signal came much later than usual.

GBP/USD: 85 pips

2010-06-14T17:28:00.004+08:00

Long GBP/USD at GMT8:23 after the signals confirmed the uptrend. Profit target is 85 pips which were achieved approximately slightly more than an hour later. This win translated into 6% growth in equity. Right on track.
Initially resisted the temptation to move the PT higher although it could translate into better gain as the trend is still in its early move. Probably could move another 50 pips higher. But satisfied with today's gain.

Week 91: Gained 9.8%

2010-06-14T16:01:00.003+08:00

Managed to gain 9.8% wow to my portfolio. Now it is at -47% of my initial capital. Laid out a plan and strategy to break even in two weeks time and to achieve positive growth by end of the month. I can do it as long as I maintain my focus and conform to my strategy. Ended week 91 with 9.8% growth only, way short of my goal. There are some mistakes that need to be corrected and currently working on it. Last Friday had two trades with two different result that canceled out each other. EUR/USD signal is mixed while GBP/USD signal is bearish, shorted both and ended with one loss and one profit.

Some pairs are not for trade

2010-06-09T08:53:00.011+08:00

Some pairs are not for trade, only to be used as benchmark. Shorted EUR/GBP and had to wait for more than 2 hours to break even. And it went up after that, lucky escape. Earlier shorted AUD/USD at GMT5:10, my bad, wrong timing, ended the trade with 34 pips loss. Had to wait about 4 hours later to enter new trade, long GBP/USD and EUR/USD and ended with only 37 pips gain from the two trades. Managed to grow one more percentage to my portfolio today. Closed the trade too early, should have let it run a bit longer as the trend is still intact at the moment of writing. GBP/USD and EUR/USD is 40 and 50 pips higher than the closing price respectively. Signals are all still intact. Maybe the long wait earlier exhausted my patience.

Learned what is credit default swap today. Credit default swap pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fails to adhere to its debts agreement. A basis point on a contract protecting 10 million euros of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1000 euros a year.

GBP/USD: 70 pips

2010-06-08T20:43:00.003+08:00

Shorted GBP/USD at GMT8:38 today with target of 70 pips which were achieved in less than an hour later. This relative fast movement was caused by news of debt concern after Fitch warned about the "formidable" challenge UK is facing and advised Prime Minister Cameron to accelerate its plans to reduce the country's budget deficit.

Later also shorted EUR/USD however only closed the trade with 4 pips gain after it showed resilient at the support area. That's all for today. Hope to maintain the winning form.

GBP/USD: 60 pips

2010-06-08T15:12:00.003+08:00

Entered long GBP/USD yesterday at GMT9:41 for a target of 60 pips . Closed in less than an hour later with full profit for a 3.9% portfolio growth. Entered with smaller lot size as the general outlook remain bearish and bigger time frame also indicated bearish trend. However the short term outlook indicates pull back and thus the trade. Other similar pairs also indicates pull back from the month's low. Besides the indicator signals are quite solid.

Week 90: Same Same

2010-06-08T14:58:00.002+08:00

Ended the week 90th of trading unchanged from the previous week. Tremendous lessons learned from the past week trades both technically and emotionally. Six wins, six losses and two break evens. Total pips gained is 10.

The 900

2010-06-04T20:45:00.003+08:00

Traded only one pair today prior to NFP announcement, GBP/USD, longed at GMT8:35 which is too early. Closed with 13 pips loss after realizing my mistake. I am still trying to refine my own strategy. Right now the result were still mixed but I am getting there. Stay tuned for more positive result.

Learn fast, make bucks.

2010-06-04T20:29:00.002+08:00

Yesterday...entered 4 trades of different pairs. Hoping to strike it all but only ended up with 2 full PT, one small win and one break even. One lesson learned from the trades 2 days ago is to wait for the second candle to confirm the direction. Four concurrent trades is too much for me to stomach, have to constantly monitor the price movement. The ideal is two open trades at a time. And one can only be entered after the first trade is headed in the right direction. Closed two of the trade early as I need to go for a badminton game with friends while leaving the other two to run. However my mind were still occupied while playing badminton, have to check the price in between games. Luckily both trades hit full PT just before my game ended.

A 15% Lesson: Congruence

2010-06-04T19:43:00.003+08:00

Two days ago...suffered 4 consecutive losses in a single day. For the past few weeks, there has been a spike in price before it break out to the opposite direction. I have been careful to avoid being caught in the false signals but were fooled this time by the late spike in EUR/USD. It was about an hour later than usual. And GBP/USD were also moving in the different direction from the four major pairs I followed. The other two were in a ranging trend. First trade was a early bird trade which did not turn out to be correct and ended up with 50 pips loss. While GBP/USD were closed with 20 pips loss although the indicators were still intact. Made a wrong judgement call there.

After closed both early trades, longed EUR/USD and shorted USD/CHF to recoup the earlier losses. But has not noticed that the day's signal were later than usual. Exited both trades with full stop loss in less than 2 hours later. This lesson cost me 15% of my portfolio.

Shorted EUR/USD for 80 pips

2010-06-01T21:20:00.002+08:00

Shorted EUR/USD at GMT8:18 at 1.2197 with target of 80 pips. It was realized approximately one and half hour later. Gained 6.2% from this trade alone. EUR were hit by news of ECB warning that European banks face additional write-offs estimated at €195bln, EU April employment rose to its highest level since June of 1998 at 10.1%, May manufacturing PMI falls to 55.8 from 57.6.

Also shorted GBP/USD and GBP/JPY but closed early after seeing it did not move much and report of improving UK PMI later helps the pair to outperform. Glad to got out with break even.

Euro may continues to weaken

2010-05-30T16:22:00.002+08:00

Fitch Ratings announced the credit rating downgrade of Spain to AA+ and assigned it a “stable” outlook after markets closed yesterday. Next week may have a significant impact on the Euro. And it may continues to weaken against major pairs.

Week 89: Have A Little Faith

2010-05-29T14:41:00.002+08:00

Ended the week with small gain on my portfolio of 3.2%. Managed to turn my poor week into profit with some scalping trades on Friday. Four trades won and two ended break even. At least maintaining the profitable week run. This is the second week running though the percentage gain is small. One prominent pattern I have discovered during the week was that the EUR market tend to start at GMT800/900. However if the price is already trending since the Asia market, be cautious on possible reversal at that time. Also worth noting is the economic news being released at that time. There are four possible time, that the trend might reverse or enhanced depending on the sentiment, GMT000, GMT800/900 & GMT1400 & GMT1700/1800. This was based on the past 2 weeks observation.

This week trades, some were hit by tight SL, some were entered too early, some turn out to be nice profitable trades, some got out with small win, some were break even. Could use a little more faith in the signals especially MACD.

Colorful

2010-05-28T15:45:00.002+08:00

Done two trades yesterday. One closed with small profit while the other hit full SL. It can be quite tiring to cope with the ups and downs of the trading emotions. One day you were ecstatic , one day you were pissed, some were restless, some were thankful. Awful lots of emotions get played up. It is even more colorful than my daily life.

Shorted EUR/USD at 1.2260 (GMT8:47) and hit SL slightly over an hour later. Its been choppy, 2 hours later it went down again then back up. A rather erratic movement from this pair. Caution ahead.

Resistance at 50%

2010-05-26T22:49:00.003+08:00

Lost 3.5% in today's choppy market. Entered 6 trades today, 2 of them hit SL, one closed with small loss, 3 closed with small profit. Frustrating result. At one point the portfolio was going up to 50% of my original initial, now drop again. There seems to be some kind of resistance at that level. Its been 4 months since the portfolio drop to below 50%. The one trade that I closed with small loss, now heading towards my direction. Arggghhhhh....

EUR/USD: 100pips

2010-05-25T14:46:00.007+08:00

Longed AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY yesterday at around GMT7:00 and both ended at SL. Effectively wiped out more than 8% from my portfolio. Persisted with the trades even though both pairs did not managed to break upward for a while. Hoped to ride the early trend but was caught out by the false signals.

Shorted EUR/USD right after both earlier trades hit SL. The trend for EUR/USD looks strong however for some strange reason, I decided to enter other pairs instead of this one. I always thought that the JPY crosses would yield me better result but I was humbled this time. In less than three hours, this trade hit PT of 100 pips. At the time of writing, the pair has even reached lower at under 1.2300.

Net percentage gain for yesterday is 5.3%.

Now is waiting for confirmation signals if there is any reversal or pullback for this pair before entering.

Week 89: Small gain

2010-05-25T14:32:00.002+08:00

Ended the week with small percentage gain of 3.3%. The result could have been better. The last two trade of the week wiped out almost half of the initial gain. Shorted GBP/USD at GMT7:51 at 1.4385, however the signals were mixed. Reduced 2% of my portfolio. Later in the night, shorted EUR/NZD but closed it early after it staged a pullback.

Overall this week, only six trades with 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 break even.

GBP/USD: 105 pips gain

2010-05-20T23:33:00.003+08:00

Shorted GBP/USD today at GMT 9:56 at 1.4354 with 105 pips profit target. And it hit my PT slightly more than 4 hours later. Few reasons that lead to entry of this trade, it was slightly later than my normal entry time as the direction were unclear earlier, and I had to be away from the screen, lastly it finally managed to breakout to the downside. Entered the trade and went out for dinner at Desa ParkCity and came back to see the green color box. Yeah...full profit target. Great satisfaction from this trade. The pair staged a rebound to EP within 2 hours after touching my PT. Highly volatile pair that has lots of opportunities.

Small win on a Wed

2010-05-20T23:16:00.003+08:00

Wednesday, shorted GBP/USD at GMT10:05 at 1.4264 with profit target of 50 pips, however only closed the trade with 15 pips gain after seeing it failed to maintain its momentum in smaller time frame (M15). The pair was struggling for more than 30 minutes and signals were not convincing enough for me to persist with the trade. It was not a good entry anyway. Glad to exit before it reverse. Thank you.

Break Even Tue

2010-05-20T22:57:00.003+08:00

Tuesday trade, long GBP/USD at GMT7:52 at 1.4465 with 60 pips profit target, however it was stopped at EP about an hour later. Though smaller time frame indicate possible reversal, the pair failed to move beyond the long term EMA suggesting that it is only a pullback. Managed the SL to EP in order to protect against any possible false signal. If the pair failed to move substantially in my direction within an hour after I have entered, possibly that it is a false signal or the trade could be caught in a side way trend. In either cases, it is better to take small losses or small wins or adjust SL to EP and ride it. I took the later option. Though there are many options available to you, sometimes it is hard to admit that you have made mistakes and accept the losses. And it take practice...

Fighting Temptation

2010-05-18T10:59:00.002+08:00

Trade: Long
Pair: GBP/USD
Time: GMT 12:26
Price: 1.4420
PT: 1.4475 (55 pips)
SL: 1.4365 (55 pips)
Setup: MACD crossed up, Higher High, Higher Low, ADX up.

Though the bigger time frame outlook still indicate downtrend, therefore the smaller profit target for this trade. Gained 2.4% from this trade. It is better to move away from the trading screen after closing the trade to avoid the temptation to re-enter.

Week 87: 1-1=0

2010-05-15T15:58:00.002+08:00

Had a setback in my progress this week. Lost all I gained from Week 86. Did not have the chance to trade yesterday, missed the start of the trend in EUR/USD.
Total pips of 113 were lost from last week trades and this reduced my portfolio by 7.2%. Too many mistakes were made. The emotion ran wild. The mind were not focused.
Terrible week.

One good trade is better than 4 bad trade

2010-05-13T22:54:00.003+08:00

Yesterday, there were a total of 4 trades, all 4 of them were wrongly setup. Three trades managed to scalp 10 pips while the last trade, USD/JPY closed with 24 pips loss. Another frustrating day, damn...
XO#@#XX%#@%OX

But today managed to recover some losses this week. Shorted GBP/USD at GMT 8:30 today and closed with 40 pips gain. The pair has continued to trend lower at the moment of writing. In fact its 150 pips lower than my closing price.

Emotional Overtrading Hazard

2010-05-13T22:20:00.004+08:00

Closed the AUD/USD trade with 27 pips loss after a two hour long emotional vs logical debate on the trade setup. As much as I had wanted to recover my earlier losses, I had to admit that I have made an irrational and careless trade. Anger and frustration are not the emotions you should experience when you enter a trade. That was the fourth trade of the day. Shortly after closing the trade, I scalped 17 pips from 2 GBP/USD pair. Altogether there were 6 trades.
Two major mistakes today, emotional and over trading.

MACD is important

2010-05-11T17:15:00.002+08:00

Been careless today with the trade setup. Entered into the trade too early and disregarded the MACD signal. Price to pay is 5% of portfolio. Time at GMT 8:00 had been the determining trend and too many times i have entered too early without respect to the signals.
Shorted GBP/USD at GMT6:17 but it swiftly reversed to hit SL of 66 pips and immediately after that longed the same pair, this trade is closed faster at 49 pips loss within 10 minutes. Total loss so far has been -10.3% excluding a live trade on going.
Longed AUD/USD at GMT8:34 with SL of 100 pips and PT of 142 pips and judging by the signals, the trade is not working very well. Will see how it react during the US session.

AUD weakness

2010-05-11T17:09:00.003+08:00

Started the with one break even on AUD/JPY pairs and a small loss on AUD/USD of 15 pips. The first trade was up 50+ pips at one moment but decided to let it run and it did run...out of steam. And it ended at my EP. Was tempted to close it but did not heed my inner voice. The trend started later than usual this week maybe due to Euro rescue package, UK parliament result, etc.

Even the BOE interest rate was a non event with no significant price movement.

Week 86: Gain 7.4%

2010-05-08T10:41:00.003+08:00

Longed USD/JPY after the NFP announcement but ended up with break even as it did not managed to break the day's high. The numbers were positive, however unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed from 9.7% to 9.9%.

Finished the week with 7.4% gain on my portfolio. Has yet to reach the half way mark of my original capital. Four winning trades out of total seven this week with one break even. Overall pips gained is 102.

Europe's Debt Woes

2010-05-08T09:56:00.001+08:00

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02schwartz.html?ref=business

This is an interesting illustration of Europe's web of debt. Greek's debt woes now spreading to other nations as well. Last Tuesday Standard & Poor's downgraded Spanish and Portuguese debt. It would interesting to see how the EU plan to solve this.

The West Crisis

2010-05-07T00:05:00.004+08:00

Shorted GBP/USD yesterday and only managed to gain 17 pips manually after it showed some signs of pulling back. Made a correct decision by exiting the trade manually as it was ranging for approximately 18 hours before it began to plummet. As I was watching the platform, I have missed out a 200+ pips movement in the pair. The weak Euro sentiment, Greek debt crisis, UK Election and fear of slowdown in China all contributed to the risk adverse sentiment.

No trade today. Unable to find the time to enter trade. Made a wise move here as my limit order would have hit SL if did not abort it.

A small win & A Bigger Lesson

2010-05-05T14:35:00.004+08:00

Had 2 winning trades yesterday. Shorted EUR/USD and GBP/USD with 45 pips and 72 pips target respectively. However only EUR/USD managed to close with full PT while GBP/USD closed with 46 pips gain. Would have hit full PT if I did not close it manually. Its been a while since I have seen such big movement in a day. Should have more faith and confident with the signals, though sometimes I would rather close with smaller profit than nothing. Its always a battle within, this time fear got the better of me. Still lack a bit of composure when facing the trading platform. However I believe that when you are trading with the money you have won, you would have better composure than when you are trading with your own capital. It could be lack of trading experience or in my case lack of winning experience. With more winning trades under your belt, you should be able to tell if the signals are convincing enough.

After yesterday close, my portfolio now stands at -51.8%. Looking at opportunity to enter during the Euro session now.
;)

A small loss and a big lesson

2010-05-04T22:28:00.003+08:00

Started the week with 2 losses and a win. Shorted GBP/USD at 1.5219 (GMT7:35) but closed it manually with 40 pips loss after the trend showing signs of reversal. Although it was more of a pullback, but I am not comfortable holding the trade overnight so closed it manually. The second trade is long EUR/USD at 1.3244 (GMT8:35) although there were hardly any signs of reversal for the pair yet. I was expecting a reversal whereas I should enter after the reversal signs were confirmed. My bad, lost 25 pips on this trade.
The final trade of the day was long USD/JPY at 94.15 (GMT11:15) and I closed it manually for 59 pips gain, almost even out the two losses earlier. A small loss and a big lesson.

Week 85: Gained 16.3%

2010-04-30T21:32:00.003+08:00

Had few more trades after the last post, scalped few pips here and there. Today longed 2 trades, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, but one trade cancelled another. Ended with break even. Had doubt on GBP/USD but persisted with the trade. Should have trusted my analysis instead of my gut feeling. Other Pound crosses were showing significant weaknesses that supported my analysis. Good lesson though.

Now on my weekly summary, almost back to half way point of my initial capital.
Total Trades: 11
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 3
Total Pips: 160
This is my second biggest weekly gain (16.3%) in my entire trading career so far. Hopefully next week can break my record high of 19.6%.

Second Consecutive Profitable Day: Weak Euro sentiment

2010-04-27T20:22:00.005+08:00

Gained almost 10% today from 3 trades. Yeah...have not been so prolific for a long time. Shorted EUR/USD and GBP/USD (twice) during the Euro session. Though at one point my first GBP/USD short trade was running at -25pips, I had to remind myself that my setup were spot on and it just a temporary pullback. True enough, the trade did hit my PT almost 2.5 hours later. Earlier my EUR/USD trade also hit my adjusted PT of 20 pips (50 pips if I did not adjust the PT). This is the second consecutive winning days I have had for a long time. However, I need to remain focused and calm with my approach. Be consistent.

Good start to Week 85

2010-04-27T20:08:00.002+08:00

Started the first trading day of the week with 3 trades. The first two long trades on GBP/USD and AUD/USD was another premature entries. Even though the signals were trending up but I did not wait till after the Euro session open. To enter trades at GMT8:00 would be safer as I noticed that the price tend heading the same direction thereafter. Realized my mistakes, I ended both trade prematurely with small loss and entered a short on EUR/USD with 40 pips profit target. And it did hit my target approximately one hour later, thus recouping my earlier two losses and ended up with almost 4% gain.
EUR/USD reverse moment after my PT was hit and it went up to 70 pips beyond my entry point. Considered this a lucky break. Thanks. :)

Week 84: -8%

2010-04-27T19:49:00.004+08:00

Longed GBP/USD at GMT7:14 at 1.5369 but ended up with 49 pips loss. It was a bad decision on the trade setup. The signals were mixed at best, but I still go in with a long trade. My bad.

Week 84 ended up with -8%. Ouch..it hurts. Overall pips lost is 68. I need discipline on my trading setup, timing my entry and managing my risk reward. For the past few weeks, my approach was more of chasing back my losses up to the point where I disregarded some aspect of my money management. Need to consistently remind myself to be confident and composed whenever entering a trade. To remain calm. Consistent winning and I will make it to the positive growth soon.

Target break even by end of May 2010.

Timing the Entry...Time it

2010-04-22T23:30:00.005+08:00

Only 2 trades today, during the Euro session. GBP/JPY closed with small profit but that was not enough to offset the loss from GBP/USD. Apparently the concern over public debt has caused the pair to drop significantly from GMT 7:00.
Noticed that the reversal tend to start at GMT7:00, even though the trend might be showing strength in the trend.
Timing, timing, timing...

Rules broken...

2010-04-22T23:19:00.003+08:00

Broke the rules today. Entered 5 trades today. First 2 short trades (GBP/USD & EUR/USD) ended in loss. And immediately longed the GBP/USD twice and GBP/JPY. I was chasing after the trend. I do admit I should not have over trade but the reversal signals were strong and I wanted to make amend on my earlier trade. Managed to make profit for the day after recouping the earlier losses. Maybe I entered trades too early these days...better timed my entry next time.

Monday Blues

2010-04-22T23:07:00.002+08:00

On Monday, shorted 3 trades (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY) at the Euro session, lost 2 and break even 1. Portfolio was down to -59.1%. The trades staged reversal shortly after the trades were entered. All trades were closed manually after seeing the reversal. Did I enter too early? Or was it the trend reversed?

Week 83

2010-04-22T22:57:00.003+08:00

Ended the week even from the previous week.
Total Trades: 10
Winning Trades: 5
Losing Trades: 4
Break even: 1

Its been tough mentally, after few weeks and you are going nowhere. Only managed to reach my weekly goal once since start.

Conservative or Signals

2010-04-16T22:44:00.004+08:00

Shorted GBP/USD in the Asian session at GMT 2:52 and had to wait for 4 hours for the trade to move in my direction. Managed to gain 23 pips before it staged some pullback. Spared myself the agony of waiting for hours for the trade to turn positive.

Then later in the US session, shorted the same pair again, however this time I cut lost at 22 pips after disappointing UoM Consumer Sentiment even though the signals showing downtrend were still intact. True enough, 40 minutes later the trade went down again and could have hit my PT of 30 pips.

I was too cautious not to lose my earlier winning, that I stopped at 22 pips loss.

Two wrong trades saved by a good trade

2010-04-15T21:30:00.003+08:00

Longed EUR/USD and GBP/USD just before the Euro session. The GBP/USD were showing uptrend in H1, H4 and D1 although EUR/USD were mixed. Other benchmark also were showing exhaustion of the USD weakness but I still entered the long trades. Another poor judgement here. EUR/USD hit SL with 35 pips while GBP/USD closed manually with 34 pips loss. Having the enthusiasm, I shorted EUR/USD a minute after the first trade hit SL. Luckily it hit PT of 55 pips and managed to break even earlier loss.

If I only waited another 15 minutes to enter the trade...imagine the result.

Better Retail Sales but weaker USD...

2010-04-15T21:20:00.003+08:00

Yesterday, longed GBP/JPY at GMT6:29 with profit target of 100 pips but closed it manually with only 13 pips profit after it reversed at GMT10:00.

At the same day also longed GBP/USD at GMT8:19 with profit target of 40 pips but were forced out at manually adjusted TS. Would have gotten the full profit if I did not adjust the SL to EP.

Later at US session, longed USD/JPY but closed it manually with 38 pips loss after trend staged a reversal. Apparently the better Retail Sales result did not favor the Dollar. Poor execution of the trade setup, more of a gamble than a trade.

The missed profit from the first two trades totally wreaked my usual calm and detailed trading pattern.

Better UK Trade Balance

2010-04-14T18:47:00.003+08:00

Managed to make small profit from my long trade yesterday. 10 pips to be exact. It was going against my way initially and at one point was just 5 pips away from my SL. But a better UK Trade Balance result of -6.2B against forecast of -7.3B helped turned the trade my way. No trading strategy were observed, hence the poor execution of the trade. Waited few hours for the negative trade to turn positive.

Tight play

2010-04-09T22:46:00.003+08:00

Longed GBP/USD and GBP/JPY today using the Speed Strategy, however I set a higher profit target of 47 pips and 100 pips respectively. And I set the SL to EP approximately 15 minutes later after it goes to my direction. I come back later to see my trades goes in my direction, however my positions were closed at EP. Wasted..played it too tight.

Spilled tea break..

2010-04-09T22:41:00.004+08:00

Missed out on the tea break yesterday but still entered short approximately 2 hours later after the breakout. The pair reversed on my position and I closed it manually with 27 pips loss. Later in the US market opening, I attempted another short position but manually closed it with 19 pips loss. I guess the fear of losing on a winning trade overpowered my emotion today. Focus, focus, focus.

Weak Euro

2010-04-07T20:58:00.004+08:00

Shorted EUR/USD at GMT10:30 at 1.3372 with profit target of 50 pips, however closed it manually after more than 2 hours with only 29 pips for a 2.1% gain. Great...so far the current week gain is at 3.2%. I believed that this pair has the potential to go down further. Euro looked to be the weakest currency at the moment on concern of Greece debt. I was hesitating to closed it for a while as it is only 20 pips away from the full profit target. Well, 29 pips gained is better than nothing. However, I do noticed other currencies were at the consolidation point and some are showing signs of reversal, hence the decision to close it early. That's it for today.

Tuesday Rocks...

2010-04-06T19:02:00.002+08:00

Made 3 wins out of 3 trades today. Shorted GBP/USD at GMT2:41 with target of 60pips. Profit target achieved approximately 5 hours later, right after the Euro session opening. I also shorted the GBP/JPY with 100 pips target, however I closed it with only 25 pips gain after the price began to hesitate an hour later.
Feeling greedy, shorted another GBP/USD after it retraced a bit, this time with a smaller PT of 30 pips. However the price were hesitating for a while before I closed it with only 4 pips gain. Recovered yesterday losses. Will be back for more...

Monday Blues..

2010-04-06T18:49:00.003+08:00

Entered into 3 losing trade yesterday. Sold GBP/USD at Euro session. The trade setup for GBP/USD was completely wrong as the price and short term MA has not pierced through the lower long term MA. Got out with 13 pips loss after almost 2 hours of uncertainties. It could be the Bank Holidays around Europe that cause the low volatility. 20 minutes later I longed USD/JPY, and it was a wrong move altogether as the RSI showed overbought and MACD showed downward trend developing. Got out with 18 pips loss.

I entered into EUR/USD with the same Speed Strategy, however I disregarded the RSI indicator. Ended up with 32 pips loss. Got to be extra vigilant on the entry timing and the signals. Overall lost almost 5% of portfolio from these 3 trades.

Week 81 Summary

2010-04-03T13:41:00.003+08:00

Yeah....finally, I made some profits for this week. Managed to make 1.8% growth on my portfolio. It's been a busy week as well, hardly have any time to trade during the Euro opening session. Only managed to try the Speed Strategy for 4 times, 2 profits and 2 break evens. Need to improve the entry of the Speed Strategy.

May the profits keep coming to me...

Week 80 Summary

2010-04-03T13:30:00.002+08:00

Ended the week with small losses of 0.3%. Another defeat, and I wonder how long before I can start winning again. I need some winnings to regain some confidence and boost morale.

Could I be in the category of peoples who are desperately trying to find motivation to get motivated...

Or I should not have written this blog while I was not feeling positive?

Maybe I need to rediscover my desire...

Week 79 Summary

2010-04-03T13:16:00.004+08:00

Had a few trades after the losses on the GBP/USD on 15 March 2010. There were few wins, losses and some break evens. Overall the week 79 ended with 4.8% loss on overall portfolio, which now stood at -58.1%. After all this defeats, how can one fight on...

I probably need some motivation...

Warrants vs Iculs

2010-03-19T22:09:00.007+08:00

What is ICULS?
Iculs area quasi-debt as they typically pay an annual coupon over their tenure but the "irredeemable" feature means there will be no repayment of principal at maturity. Instead, the face value of the Iculs will be converted into new ordinary shares based on the stipulated conversion ratio.
In this sense, Iculs take on the characteristics of warrants as their value would fluctuate with the underlying shares, moving in similar direction.
If you were an Iculs holder, you would enjoy coupon income (interest) throughout the Iculs' life and be allotted new shares at expiry.
Take for example of XX-LB.
Issue date : 1997
Nominal value : RM1 as a five-year Iculs
Coupon : 7.5%
Conversion ratio : 8.4
If you subscribed to 1,000 XX-LB from the start, you would have received 7.5cent per unit in gross annual coupon for five years. Upon maturity, your 1,000 XX-LB would have been converted into 119 XX new ordinary shares. As long as the Iculs issuer remains solvent, an Iculs holder would collect annual coupon and be issued new shares upon maturity. Most cases would not involve additional outlay at maturity, although Iculs plus cash option is provided sometimes, which could enhance returns should the Iculs trade above RM1.
Even in the case of insolvency, Iculs holders' rights would rank on par with unsecured creditors but before shareholders. In this sense, Iculs hold value much better than warrants, which can be expired worthless.

Warrants
As against Iculs, the key difference is that a warrant holder would not enjoy any income stream during its life, and he would have to fork out additional outlay to exercise the warrants, which at the end of the day, is only an option which would be worthless if not exercised. Furthermore, in the case of insolvency, warrant holders would most likely be holding worthless paper as they have no rights unless they exercise the ownership option.

All else being equal, both Iculs and warrants lose value over time with the approach of their expiry.

It may not be meaningful to generalise as a warrant trading at conversion discount could be better investment than Iculs at excessive premium. However, given similar tenure and conversion premium, Iculs would tend to be less risky due to the coupon income and also the conversion of principal at maturity, against warrants which provide no income and require additional outlay at maturity.
What is interesting though is in the Malaysian context, investors' penchant for warrants is such that they area often chased up to huge premiums, while Iculs lag behind at conversion discounts, despite offering attractive annual coupons. This provides mispricing opportunities, which could bring potentially meaningful gains.

They are several key parameters should be checked out before any decision to invest in ICULS/warrants.

Fundamentals of underlying shares - given that both Iculs and warrants ultimately derive their value form the underlying shares;
Tenure - the longer the better, as warrants/Iculs lose value over time
Conversion premium - the lower the better;
Volatility - warrants of a more volatile shares tend to attract a higher premium;
Coupon - in the case of Iculs, the coupon payment itself could be an attaction and an effective cushion.

Delayed gratification...?

2010-03-16T21:50:00.007+08:00

When you are now at your midlife, and you are asking yourself 'What's the point?' I guess I do not have the answer right now. Coming from a poor family, graduated from government school, finished college, completed a degree, my academic result were fairly good. However that did not prepare me to the real world. Switched to different profession in my twelve years of working life, starting with drafting, construction, QS and now to real estate. Realized early that being an employee has its limitation. Began searching for new opportunity as soon as stepped into the working world.

'No matter how busy you may think you are, you must find time for reading, or surrender yourself to self-chosen ignorance.' - Confucius

However, I have enjoyed reading books. One of the books that really opened up my mind is 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' by Robert Kiyosaki and some other books on investing, properties, etc. I began to participate in some workshops and seminars on motivation, internet marketing and investing. And finally I decided to focus on forex trading. I was determined to make it happen. But so far result has not been encouraging. Few of my friends stopped trading, some wiped out their trading account and some did not start. Quit my full time job to become a real estate negotiator in order to find more time to trade. Now facing the challenges of both the real estate business and the forex trading a bit overwhelming. And I hope I can overcome it.

'Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.' -Confucius

I would love to believe that I would succeed eventually. That this period of challenge is one short phase towards a fulfilling journey. I'd like to believe that this is a process of delayed gratification, that I would be able to get what I wanted if I persisted long enough. There was this marshmallows test done long time ago on a group of children, which showed that children with better self-control often excelled in their life. Hoped that I made a right choice.

Fall for false signal

2010-03-15T20:17:00.004+08:00

Longed GBP/USD at GMT7:23 today after seeing it break out to the upside, however it proved to be a false signal. Lost 56 pips from this trade or approximately 4.8% of my portfolio.
D1: Downtrend (MACD crossed up)
H4: Uptrend
H1: Sideway (MACD crossed down)
This is clearly a mixed signal, however I still entered the trade. Had only myself to blame. I was too hurried to get a position.

Equities Tracker

2010-03-15T19:52:00.003+08:00

I have the chance to attend a workshop on Value Investing conducted by Equities Tracker in Leisure Commerce Square last weekend. I have gained valuable insights into value investing, on how to read financial statement, selecting stocks and timing the entry. I highly recommend those beginners/novice in the stock market and investors to attend the course for you to understand what is investing all about.

Disclaimer
All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. I makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.

Getting Rich

2010-03-15T19:30:00.004+08:00

I have read a few books on how to get rich e.g. The Science of Getting Rich, Think and Grow Rich, Millionaire Mindset, Rule #1, Property Millionaire, Property Jewel, The Secrets, etc. And a recent survey done in Malaysia revealed that 96% of youth aspire to become millionaire by the age of 35. but only 24% of them believed its due to hard work and determination. While 25% of those surveyed said that they are willing to give up ethics to become a millionaire.
I think it takes a lot of determination and a little bit of luck to achieve what you wanted. Like Wallace D. Wattles said, the first principle in the science of getting rich is thought and gratitude or Law of Attraction. You only need to use your will power upon yourself. Begin with the end in mind, know what you want and act upon it...until you succeed.

"Success is falling nine times and getting up ten!"
— Jon Bon Jovi

Tea break strategy gain

2010-03-12T18:56:00.004+08:00

Longed GBP/USD at GMT8:10 after it break out to the upside.
D1: Downtrend (MACD crossed up though)
H4: Uptrend (although EMA has not fully cross up)
H1: Uptrend (MACD is unclear)

I entered the trade even though the signal was not strong enough, but this is a tea break strategy. Risked smaller lot size and did not let it run to hit PT target of 62pips. I closed manually with only 25 pips gain adding 1.2% to portfolio.
Overall weekly gain was 3.2%.
Portfolio: -56%

Still a long way to break even.

Escaped a loss

2010-03-11T16:27:00.004+08:00

Shorted GBP/USD at GMT6:49 after confirming the trend.
D1: Downtrend (ignored SAR, while RSI is oversold)
H4: Downtrend (though the MACD is converging)
H1: No clear signal (MACD & ADX crossed up while EMA is sideway)

After moving in a range for more than a hour, I manually closed it with 10 pips loss. It should have been a trade to be avoided. Still needed to exert control on my emotion and addiction.

Most pairs seemed to be moving in a range, possibly awaiting news announcement for it to sway.

Difference between a nice trade setup and mixed trade setup

2010-03-11T11:44:00.004+08:00

I shorted GBP/USD at GMT6:49 after all signals confirming downtrend.
D1: Downtrend (SAR ignored)
H4: Downtrend
H1: Downtrend
EP: 1.4961
SL: 1.5010 (49 pips)
PT: 1.4900 (61 pips)
It hit profit target an hour later. This trade contributed 6% gain to my portfolio.

Second trade, shorted EUR/USD at GMT7.17 even though signals are rather mixed.
D1: EMA (downtrend), MACD & ADX (uptrend)
H4: EMA (sideway), MACD & ADX (downtrend)
H1: Downtrend
EP: 1.3575
SL: 1.3615 (40 pips)
PT: 1.3525 (50 pips)
However it seems to be reversing after an hour and I closed it manually with 14 pips gain. Although I should have avoided the trade initially as the signal were rather mixed.

Portfolio: -56%.

Cheers.

Renaming of Blog

2010-03-10T19:15:00.003+08:00

I was seriously considering renaming this blog. Current name of FX War do not sound appropriate and in harmony with my mission and my goal.

Will keep you updated as I thought of a better and appropriate name.

Never Catch a Falling Dagger

2010-03-10T18:53:00.003+08:00

I did not enter any trade on Monday as I could not find any good entry signal. All indicators were mixed and the trend is not clear. It is better to stay out rather than get caught in the choppy market.

Shorted GBP/JPY the next day at GMT6:45. The indicators were all signaling downtrend except for D1 which is rather mixed but I shorted it anyway on the sentiment of general weakness of British Pound. However I closed it within 30 minutes as it was moving rather slow. Managed to grab 12 pips from the trade. And I experimented with another pair, this time GBP/NZD. Those experienced trader always said trend is your friend, never catch a falling dagger, etc. and I foolishly ignored the advise. After seeing the pair at 18 months low, I was hoping that the pair is ripe for a rebound. How foolish the thought is...lost 279 pips on the trade, which cost me 4.6% of my portfolio.

Clumsy NFP trades

2010-03-10T18:27:00.002+08:00

Lost 44 pips in 3 minutes in a trade (GBP/USD) during the NFP news release. It was a clumsy trade decision, one that cost me 6.4% of my portfolio. Shorted the pair right after the NFP announcement after checking other few pairs. The consequences of neglecting my money management. Longed USD/JPY moments later and managed to gain 30 pips. Even out I still lost 14 pips.

Two Trades on 4 March 2010.

2010-03-05T15:42:00.003+08:00

Entered short USD/CAD few hours before the US Unemployment Claims and GBP Official Bank Rate report released. Another misjudgement in trading setup. It was moving in my direction before it reversed and closed at EP. Before that I also entered long GBP/USD after the Official Bank Rate announced with no rate hikes or additional QE measured.
I entered those two trades even though the signals were rather mixed. Suffered loss of 77 pips from this trade, thus effectively erasing the two gains I made earlier.
Focus, focus, focus and control, control, control.

Control Needed

2010-03-05T15:23:00.002+08:00

I guess I have not been able to control my trading addiction just yet. Shorted GBP/USD on a mixed signal.
D1: Down
H4: Down, but MACD crossed up & SAR dot also indicating uptrend.
H1: Down.
RSI: Oversold

I was too eager to ride the trend early whereas the trend is not clear. Luckily the trade is closed without loss.

GBP/NZD - Second trade of the March 2010

2010-03-05T15:09:00.002+08:00

I entered long GBP/NZD after it hit all time low 2 days earlier. Other signal that persuaded me to enter the trade was rather mixed.

D1: Down, RSI oversold.
H4: Down, MACD & ADX crossed up.
H1: Up

Longed at 2.1588 with profit target of 2.3388 and stop loss of 2.1265 just below the all time low. However I closed the trade with 158 pips gain after the experience with EUR/USD where it reversed.

First Trade of March 2010

2010-03-02T18:55:00.003+08:00

I took a long break from trading in coincidence with Chinese New Year celebration. Partly was because I was too busy to trade and partly because I am unable to identify good trading opportunity. The market has been very volatile and for the past few weeks, I have been entering trade irregardless of proper trade signals and it has cost me dearly. Now that I have learned my lesson, I will start trading with proper money management and trading system.

Today I entered short EUR/USD based on these criteria:
D1: Down
H4: Down
H1: Down
MACD: Down
ADX: Down
RSI: Above lower channel

Short at 1.3525 with profit target of 100 pips but it only went down 90 pips before reversing. I closed it manually with 33 pips gain. A good start.

Trading Reflection - 2nd Week of Feb 2010

2010-02-12T21:26:00.003+08:00

Four of my six trades ended up in losses this week, one break even and one made a small gain. Overall my portfolio down 9.6% this week. Looking back at my trade setup, I had only myself to blame. I entered even when the signals are mixed. The last trade for this week was long AUD/USD on the Euro session. It went down an hour after entry and reach my stop loss within four hours. I did not cut it short even though the signals were indicating reversal. Naivety...
Overall my portfolio now stand at -56.6%, the new low point. Third consecutive losing week. Five losing weeks out of the last six.

Lessons are very expensive in forex trading world. Either you pay someone to teach you the ropes of the the trades or you ended up paying the market for the lessons. The difference is that when you pay to learn from someone, you gained some confidence and knowledge in strategies,if you are lucky you even get a bit of mentoring and guides in your early trading career (if you decide to make it a career). Along the way, as you gained some experience in trading, you ought to discover your own style and strategy. Maybe you tried and experimented with some strategies or trading style of your own, be sure to do it on a small scale.

Trading Reflection - 1st week of Feb 2010

2010-02-06T22:16:00.003+08:00

Had another disappointing result this week, -3%, now the portfolio stands at -52%, new time low. It can be very frustrating when the result do not go your way. Sometimes i do feel helplessness.

When i started this forex trading, I have great expectation to be able to retire comfortably within a short time of period. And it did not turn out as what I expected, then i thought maybe i wasn't able to concentrate and focus on trading while working full time. So i quit my full time job and work in the real estate industry as a negotiator, I thought where this job allows me to manage my time to suit my trading, I would be able to produce better result. And i was wrong, I did worse.

And now i must think of a remedy. How can i consistently produce better result in trading?

Lesson at an Orphanage

2010-02-06T21:57:00.003+08:00

I was invited by my friend, Lai to visit an orphanage in Jalan Ipoh today. He had initiated a 1Month 1Charity, a monthly charity initiative for the less privileged. Before that we bought some food and necessities to them. There were 30 of them with 7 workers maintaining the premises. They relied mostly on donations and corporate sponsorship. I was surprised that our government actually did little to assist in the well being of the orphanage.

While I was walking around the home, I saw these words on the wall of the home. Very true indeed.

Jung Personality Test

2010-02-05T19:16:00.003+08:00

According to this test, I'm an ISTJ.

Introverted 22%
Sensing 1%
Thinking 62%
Judging 44%

It says:

"It is in keeping with tradition throughout our history that I should express simply and directly the opinions which I hold concerning some of the matters of present importance." --Herbert Hoover, Inaugural Address, Monday, March 4, 1929.

ISTJs are often called inspectors. They have a keen sense of right and wrong, especially in their area of interest and/or responsibility. They are noted for devotion to duty. Punctuality is a watchword of the ISTJ. The secretary, clerk, or business(wo)man by whom others set their clocks is likely to be an ISTJ.

As do other Introverted Thinkers, ISTJs often give the initial impression of being aloof and perhaps somewhat cold. Effusive expression of emotional warmth is not something that ISTJs do without considerable energy loss.

ISTJs are most at home with "just the facts, Ma'am." They seem to perform at highest efficiency when employing a step-by-step approach. Once a new procedure has proven itself (i.e., has been shown "to work,") the ISTJ can be depended upon to carry it through, even at the expense of their own health.

ISTJs are easily frustrated by the inconsistencies of others, especially when the second parties don't keep their commitments. But they usually keep their feelings to themselves unless they are asked. And when asked, they don't mince words. Truth wins out over tact. The grim determination of the ISTJ vindicates itself in officiation of sports events, judiciary functions, or an other situation which requires making tough calls and sticking to them.

His SJ orientation draws the ISTJ into the service of established institutions. Home, social clubs, government, schools, the military, churches -- these are the bastions of the SJ. "We've always done it this way" is often reason enough for many ISTJs. Threats to time-honored traditions or established organizations (e.g., a "run" on the bank) are the undoing of SJs, and are to be fought at all costs.

Functional Analysis

Introverted Sensing

Si is oriented toward the world of forms, essences, generics. Time is such a form, a quantifiable essense of exactitude, the standard to which external events are held. For both of the IS_J types, the sense of propriety comes from the clear definition of these internal forms. An apple "should" have certain qualities, against which all apples are evaluated. A "proper" chair has four legs, (and other qualities this poor INTP can only guess). Jung viewed introverted sensing as something of an oxymoron, in that the natural direction of senses is outward toward the object, rather than inward and away from it. One has the sense that Introverted Sensors are drawn more to the measure of the concept of the perceived object than to the experience of that perception.

Extraverted Thinking

The moderation of the Te function serves to socialize the expression of these forms. When the Si function is ready to relinquish the data, Te may speak. Otherwise, silence is golden. ISTJs seem to have a few favorite forms (the tried and true) which may serve for most occasions. My ISTJ dad woke me every morning with the same phrase for more years than I care to remember. Asked, "How are you?" he answered with the same stock phrase. ("As well as my age and habits will permit" was used for about two decades.) "It's a good form, a sound form--it's the form for me."

Introverted Feeling

Since Fi is turned inward, it is rarely expressed. Perhaps this enables the ISTJ to resolutely accept that "we are all doomed." When told that Lazarus had died, Thomas said, "Let us go and die with him." (He could just as well have said something like, "I knew this was bound to happen sooner or later.") Only in times of great distress is the Introverted Feeling expressed (as I witnessed in my dad when a neighbor's son was killed in a hunting accident). Otherwise, feeling is inferred, or expressed nonverbally, through eye contact, or an encouraging smile.

Extraverted Intuition

The Ne function of an ISTJ does not serve her very well. It needs a lot of help. She was surprised, for example, to find that someone she had talked with only by phone had red hair, because she "didn't usually like" people with red hair! This inferior Ne seems to be a major source of, and a natural breeding ground for, stereotypes. Failure of the banking system is but one bogeyman which arises from the fear which feeds on the ISTJ's mistrust of real world possibilities. The shadow inhabiting the inferior Ne strikes at the precious forms and standards in the heart of the dominant Si function.

Trading Goal & Review

2010-02-03T22:09:00.002+08:00

Started with the goal of breaking even by end of February. Come to review my goal, I was wondering if its a realistic goal. I read somewhere that goal has to be realistic. I have never achieved growth of more than 24% in a month. Now is 3rd day into the month and i started the month with 2 losses of 3%. Got to grow 108% to break even. Weekly goal is to grow 20%. Daily goal is to grow 5% and that is achievable. The catch here is to do it consistently.

Now that the goal has been set. Its time to review the strategy. Need to put it down to writing so that i can follow my trading setup before i enter any trades. :-)

Trading Error..

2010-01-25T22:54:00.003+08:00

Made a mistake in today's trade. While the long term trend is down, however the hourly trend is going up. I shorted GBP/USD ignoring the short term trend. And the trade hit stop loss in less than two hour. I realised the mistake halfway but did not act to cut it short, second mistake.

Overall portfolio at -47%.
Target to break even by end of February 2009.

A Poem

2010-01-11T21:27:00.003+08:00

Suffered a massive loss last week from several trades. Reduced my portfolio by 13.7% now at -45.6%. Need a 100% gain to break even. Something that i have never achieved in my trading career.

The Charge of the Light Brigade

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
'Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns' he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.

Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred.

—Alfred, Lord Tennyson

Courage is a hard thing to figure. You can have courage based on a dumb idea or mistake. That's why courage is tricky. Should you always do what others tell you to do? Sometimes you might not even know why you're doing something.
HELP!!!!!!!!

Frustrating result....x@#%

2010-01-05T20:06:00.003+08:00

After some encouraging result last December, i started the January with 2 days of consecutive loss. Very frustrating indeed. Lost what i gained in December in just mere 2 days. Yesterday i entered long an hour after the Euro market open and the trade reversed about 3 hours later. Today I entered another long trade on GBP/USD at the Euro market opening and it reversed immediately.

x@#% x@#% x@#% x@#% x@#% x@#% x@#%

Good night.

The Most Powerful Word

2009-12-28T22:26:00.000+08:00

I must time my entry better

2009-12-11T14:08:00.002+08:00

Suffered three consecutive losing trade in two days. The first one, I managed to cut it before hitting full SL. Yesterday two trades was a mistake at entry itself. I entered too early and disregard the long term indicator. There were mixed signals and I was getting reckless after few wins earlier in the week. Thank goodness it was only small lots.

Lazy blog...

2009-12-07T18:26:00.004+08:00

I am getting lazier and lazier to blog nowadays, especially since i went into the real estate industry. Not that i am too busy to blog, just lazy. No excuses.

The market has been kind lately, I have been able to make some small gains. For three weeks after my last blog, I managed to increase my portfolio from -45% to -41% as at last week. Though I would not be able to make the 500% portfolio growth challenge this year. I believe it is possible next year.

After better than expected NFP result last Friday, USD strength gain momentum on the expectation that the Fed might raise interest rate sooner. Though i was a little hesitant when i enter my trade during the European session. Luckily the market moves as per my analysis. Gain 3.5% from the 2 trades. Yeah..

A long break from blogging

2009-11-13T23:34:00.003+08:00

Wow...its almost a month since i updated my blog. I've been busy and lazy. Busy with my real estate business and lazy to update my blog. Back to my trading results, since the last update my portfolio were down half of my initial investment. I was scared, panic and downhearted. My mentor once said, do not lose the lesson when you lose your trade. You must know why your trade fail.

After much thought and analysis, I discovered my mistakes. Now I understood of what my mentor said, enter late and exit early.

Happy trading.

WWLLLWLWLL-LWW-LWLWWWWL

2009-10-18T13:34:00.003+08:00

This is the result since Sept 25 2009. Although the win loss ratio seems to be even but the magnitude of losses was far more than of the winning. At one point i was losing my hope in trading after so many defeats. Took a few days of break, then come back again with few small wins then wrapped the week with another loss.

On a good note, i managed to close my first deal in real estate. An office tenancy for 2 years, will be collecting my first pay cheque in the next few days. Last night I have dinner with my four ex-colleagues at Lookout Point. Olivia just got married 2 weeks ago, came from Singapore, Cathy just got her new Vios, Nicole and Chloe. We catch up with the happening in our lives and we left at midnight.

Good week ahead.

Learning after the lesson

2009-09-25T16:15:00.005+08:00

After the 9% lesson, i have to rebuild and re-grow my portfolio again. Its kind of disappointing when you got the setback during the period you thought you were on the ascending path. It was a hard lesson. These are the 12 trades after the 9% lesson. The first few trades were doing well and i was rushing to recoup the losses when i started to take bigger risk. And today i shorted 3 trades on GBPUSD, GBPJPY and USDJPY. Even my trading buddy said i was not my usual self as i rarely take so much risk. Got to stay calm and stay focused.