Friday, March 19, 2010

Warrants vs Iculs

What is ICULS?
Iculs area quasi-debt as they typically pay an annual coupon over their tenure but the "irredeemable" feature means there will be no repayment of principal at maturity. Instead, the face value of the Iculs will be converted into new ordinary shares based on the stipulated conversion ratio.
In this sense, Iculs take on the characteristics of warrants as their value would fluctuate with the underlying shares, moving in similar direction.
If you were an Iculs holder, you would enjoy coupon income (interest) throughout the Iculs' life and be allotted new shares at expiry.
Take for example of XX-LB.
Issue date : 1997
Nominal value : RM1 as a five-year Iculs
Coupon : 7.5%
Conversion ratio : 8.4
If you subscribed to 1,000 XX-LB from the start, you would have received 7.5cent per unit in gross annual coupon for five years. Upon maturity, your 1,000 XX-LB would have been converted into 119 XX new ordinary shares. As long as the Iculs issuer remains solvent, an Iculs holder would collect annual coupon and be issued new shares upon maturity. Most cases would not involve additional outlay at maturity, although Iculs plus cash option is provided sometimes, which could enhance returns should the Iculs trade above RM1.
Even in the case of insolvency, Iculs holders' rights would rank on par with unsecured creditors but before shareholders. In this sense, Iculs hold value much better than warrants, which can be expired worthless.

Warrants
As against Iculs, the key difference is that a warrant holder would not enjoy any income stream during its life, and he would have to fork out additional outlay to exercise the warrants, which at the end of the day, is only an option which would be worthless if not exercised. Furthermore, in the case of insolvency, warrant holders would most likely be holding worthless paper as they have no rights unless they exercise the ownership option.

All else being equal, both Iculs and warrants lose value over time with the approach of their expiry.

It may not be meaningful to generalise as a warrant trading at conversion discount could be better investment than Iculs at excessive premium. However, given similar tenure and conversion premium, Iculs would tend to be less risky due to the coupon income and also the conversion of principal at maturity, against warrants which provide no income and require additional outlay at maturity.
What is interesting though is in the Malaysian context, investors' penchant for warrants is such that they area often chased up to huge premiums, while Iculs lag behind at conversion discounts, despite offering attractive annual coupons. This provides mispricing opportunities, which could bring potentially meaningful gains.

They are several key parameters should be checked out before any decision to invest in ICULS/warrants.
  1. Fundamentals of underlying shares - given that both Iculs and warrants ultimately derive their value form the underlying shares;
  2. Tenure - the longer the better, as warrants/Iculs lose value over time
  3. Conversion premium - the lower the better;
  4. Volatility - warrants of a more volatile shares tend to attract a higher premium;
  5. Coupon - in the case of Iculs, the coupon payment itself could be an attaction and an effective cushion.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Delayed gratification...?

When you are now at your midlife, and you are asking yourself 'What's the point?' I guess I do not have the answer right now. Coming from a poor family, graduated from government school, finished college, completed a degree, my academic result were fairly good. However that did not prepare me to the real world. Switched to different profession in my twelve years of working life, starting with drafting, construction, QS and now to real estate. Realized early that being an employee has its limitation. Began searching for new opportunity as soon as stepped into the working world.

'No matter how busy you may think you are, you must find time for reading, or surrender yourself to self-chosen ignorance.' - Confucius

However, I have enjoyed reading books. One of the books that really opened up my mind is 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' by Robert Kiyosaki and some other books on investing, properties, etc. I began to participate in some workshops and seminars on motivation, internet marketing and investing. And finally I decided to focus on forex trading. I was determined to make it happen. But so far result has not been encouraging. Few of my friends stopped trading, some wiped out their trading account and some did not start. Quit my full time job to become a real estate negotiator in order to find more time to trade. Now facing the challenges of both the real estate business and the forex trading a bit overwhelming. And I hope I can overcome it.

'Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.' -Confucius

I would love to believe that I would succeed eventually. That this period of challenge is one short phase towards a fulfilling journey. I'd like to believe that this is a process of delayed gratification, that I would be able to get what I wanted if I persisted long enough. There was this
marshmallows test done long time ago on a group of children, which showed that children with better self-control often excelled in their life. Hoped that I made a right choice.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Fall for false signal

Longed GBP/USD at GMT7:23 today after seeing it break out to the upside, however it proved to be a false signal. Lost 56 pips from this trade or approximately 4.8% of my portfolio.
D1: Downtrend (MACD crossed up)
H4: Uptrend
H1: Sideway (MACD crossed down)
This is clearly a mixed signal, however I still entered the trade. Had only myself to blame. I was too hurried to get a position.

Equities Tracker

I have the chance to attend a workshop on Value Investing conducted by Equities Tracker in Leisure Commerce Square last weekend. I have gained valuable insights into value investing, on how to read financial statement, selecting stocks and timing the entry. I highly recommend those beginners/novice in the stock market and investors to attend the course for you to understand what is investing all about.

Disclaimer
All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. I makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.

Getting Rich

I have read a few books on how to get rich e.g. The Science of Getting Rich, Think and Grow Rich, Millionaire Mindset, Rule #1, Property Millionaire, Property Jewel, The Secrets, etc. And a recent survey done in Malaysia revealed that 96% of youth aspire to become millionaire by the age of 35. but only 24% of them believed its due to hard work and determination. While 25% of those surveyed said that they are willing to give up ethics to become a millionaire.
I think it takes a lot of determination and a little bit of luck to achieve what you wanted. Like Wallace D. Wattles said, the first principle in the science of getting rich is thought and gratitude or Law of Attraction. You only need to use your will power upon yourself. Begin with the end in mind, know what you want and act upon it...until you succeed.

"Success is falling nine times and getting up ten!"
— Jon Bon Jovi

Friday, March 12, 2010

Tea break strategy gain

Longed GBP/USD at GMT8:10 after it break out to the upside.
D1: Downtrend (MACD crossed up though)
H4: Uptrend (although EMA has not fully cross up)
H1: Uptrend (MACD is unclear)
I entered the trade even though the signal was not strong enough, but this is a tea break strategy. Risked smaller lot size and did not let it run to hit PT target of 62pips. I closed manually with only 25 pips gain adding 1.2% to portfolio.
Overall weekly gain was 3.2%.
Portfolio: -56%

Still a long way to break even.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Escaped a loss

Shorted GBP/USD at GMT6:49 after confirming the trend.
D1: Downtrend (ignored SAR, while RSI is oversold)
H4: Downtrend (though the MACD is converging)
H1: No clear signal (MACD & ADX crossed up while EMA is sideway)

After moving in a range for more than a hour, I manually closed it with 10 pips loss. It should have been a trade to be avoided. Still needed to exert control on my emotion and addiction.

Most pairs seemed to be moving in a range, possibly awaiting news announcement for it to sway.

Difference between a nice trade setup and mixed trade setup

I shorted GBP/USD at GMT6:49 after all signals confirming downtrend.
D1: Downtrend (SAR ignored)
H4: Downtrend
H1: Downtrend
EP: 1.4961
SL: 1.5010 (49 pips)
PT: 1.4900 (61 pips)
It hit profit target an hour later. This trade contributed 6% gain to my portfolio.

Second trade, shorted EUR/USD at GMT7.17 even though signals are rather mixed.
D1: EMA (downtrend), MACD & ADX (uptrend)
H4: EMA (sideway), MACD & ADX (downtrend)
H1: Downtrend
EP: 1.3575
SL: 1.3615 (40 pips)
PT: 1.3525 (50 pips)
However it seems to be reversing after an hour and I closed it manually with 14 pips gain. Although I should have avoided the trade initially as the signal were rather mixed.

Portfolio: -56%.

Cheers.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Renaming of Blog

I was seriously considering renaming this blog. Current name of FX War do not sound appropriate and in harmony with my mission and my goal.

Will keep you updated as I thought of a better and appropriate name.

Never Catch a Falling Dagger

I did not enter any trade on Monday as I could not find any good entry signal. All indicators were mixed and the trend is not clear. It is better to stay out rather than get caught in the choppy market.

Shorted GBP/JPY the next day at GMT6:45. The indicators were all signaling downtrend except for D1 which is rather mixed but I shorted it anyway on the sentiment of general weakness of British Pound. However I closed it within 30 minutes as it was moving rather slow. Managed to grab 12 pips from the trade. And I experimented with another pair, this time GBP/NZD. Those experienced trader always said trend is your friend, never catch a falling dagger, etc. and I foolishly ignored the advise. After seeing the pair at 18 months low, I was hoping that the pair is ripe for a rebound. How foolish the thought is...lost 279 pips on the trade, which cost me 4.6% of my portfolio.

Clumsy NFP trades

Lost 44 pips in 3 minutes in a trade (GBP/USD) during the NFP news release. It was a clumsy trade decision, one that cost me 6.4% of my portfolio. Shorted the pair right after the NFP announcement after checking other few pairs. The consequences of neglecting my money management. Longed USD/JPY moments later and managed to gain 30 pips. Even out I still lost 14 pips.

Friday, March 5, 2010

Two Trades on 4 March 2010.

Entered short USD/CAD few hours before the US Unemployment Claims and GBP Official Bank Rate report released. Another misjudgement in trading setup. It was moving in my direction before it reversed and closed at EP. Before that I also entered long GBP/USD after the Official Bank Rate announced with no rate hikes or additional QE measured.
I entered those two trades even though the signals were rather mixed. Suffered loss of 77 pips from this trade, thus effectively erasing the two gains I made earlier.
Focus, focus, focus and control, control, control.

Control Needed

I guess I have not been able to control my trading addiction just yet. Shorted GBP/USD on a mixed signal.
D1: Down
H4: Down, but MACD crossed up & SAR dot also indicating uptrend.
H1: Down.
RSI: Oversold

I was too eager to ride the trend early whereas the trend is not clear. Luckily the trade is closed without loss.

GBP/NZD - Second trade of the March 2010

I entered long GBP/NZD after it hit all time low 2 days earlier. Other signal that persuaded me to enter the trade was rather mixed.
D1: Down, RSI oversold.
H4: Down, MACD & ADX crossed up.
H1: Up

Longed at 2.1588 with profit target of 2.3388 and stop loss of 2.1265 just below the all time low. However I closed the trade with 158 pips gain after the experience with EUR/USD where it reversed.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

First Trade of March 2010

I took a long break from trading in coincidence with Chinese New Year celebration. Partly was because I was too busy to trade and partly because I am unable to identify good trading opportunity. The market has been very volatile and for the past few weeks, I have been entering trade irregardless of proper trade signals and it has cost me dearly. Now that I have learned my lesson, I will start trading with proper money management and trading system.

Today I entered short EUR/USD based on these criteria:
D1: Down
H4: Down
H1: Down
MACD: Down
ADX: Down
RSI: Above lower channel

Short at 1.3525 with profit target of 100 pips but it only went down 90 pips before reversing. I closed it manually with 33 pips gain. A good start.

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