Euro may continues to weaken

Fitch Ratings announced the credit rating downgrade of Spain to AA+ and assigned it a “stable” outlook after markets closed yesterday. Next week may have a significant impact on the Euro. And it may continues to weaken against major pairs.

Week 89: Have A Little Faith

Ended the week with small gain on my portfolio of 3.2%. Managed to turn my poor week into profit with some scalping trades on Friday. Four trades won and two ended break even. At least maintaining the profitable week run. This is the second week running though the percentage gain is small. One prominent pattern I have discovered during the week was that the EUR market tend to start at GMT800/900. However if the price is already trending since the Asia market, be cautious on possible reversal at that time. Also worth noting is the economic news being released at that time. There are four possible time, that the trend might reverse or enhanced depending on the sentiment, GMT000, GMT800/900 & GMT1400 & GMT1700/1800. This was based on the past 2 weeks observation.

This week trades, some were hit by tight SL, some were entered too early, some turn out to be nice profitable trades, some got out with small win, some were break even. Could use a little more faith in the signals especially MACD.

Colorful

Done two trades yesterday. One closed with small profit while the other hit full SL. It can be quite tiring to cope with the ups and downs of the trading emotions. One day you were ecstatic , one day you were pissed, some were restless, some were thankful. Awful lots of emotions get played up. It is even more colorful than my daily life.

Shorted EUR/USD at 1.2260 (GMT8:47) and hit SL slightly over an hour later. Its been choppy, 2 hours later it went down again then back up. A rather erratic movement from this pair. Caution ahead.

Resistance at 50%

Lost 3.5% in today's choppy market. Entered 6 trades today, 2 of them hit SL, one closed with small loss, 3 closed with small profit. Frustrating result. At one point the portfolio was going up to 50% of my original initial, now drop again. There seems to be some kind of resistance at that level. Its been 4 months since the portfolio drop to below 50%. The one trade that I closed with small loss, now heading towards my direction. Arggghhhhh....

EUR/USD: 100pips

Longed AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY yesterday at around GMT7:00 and both ended at SL. Effectively wiped out more than 8% from my portfolio. Persisted with the trades even though both pairs did not managed to break upward for a while. Hoped to ride the early trend but was caught out by the false signals.

Shorted EUR/USD right after both earlier trades hit SL. The trend for EUR/USD looks strong however for some strange reason, I decided to enter other pairs instead of this one. I always thought that the JPY crosses would yield me better result but I was humbled this time. In less than three hours, this trade hit PT of 100 pips. At the time of writing, the pair has even reached lower at under 1.2300.

Net percentage gain for yesterday is 5.3%.

Now is waiting for confirmation signals if there is any reversal or pullback for this pair before entering.

Week 89: Small gain

Ended the week with small percentage gain of 3.3%. The result could have been better. The last two trade of the week wiped out almost half of the initial gain. Shorted GBP/USD at GMT7:51 at 1.4385, however the signals were mixed. Reduced 2% of my portfolio. Later in the night, shorted EUR/NZD but closed it early after it staged a pullback.

Overall this week, only six trades with 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 break even.

GBP/USD: 105 pips gain

Shorted GBP/USD today at GMT 9:56 at 1.4354 with 105 pips profit target. And it hit my PT slightly more than 4 hours later. Few reasons that lead to entry of this trade, it was slightly later than my normal entry time as the direction were unclear earlier, and I had to be away from the screen, lastly it finally managed to breakout to the downside. Entered the trade and went out for dinner at Desa ParkCity and came back to see the green color box. Yeah...full profit target. Great satisfaction from this trade. The pair staged a rebound to EP within 2 hours after touching my PT. Highly volatile pair that has lots of opportunities.

Small win on a Wed

Wednesday, shorted GBP/USD at GMT10:05 at 1.4264 with profit target of 50 pips, however only closed the trade with 15 pips gain after seeing it failed to maintain its momentum in smaller time frame (M15). The pair was struggling for more than 30 minutes and signals were not convincing enough for me to persist with the trade. It was not a good entry anyway. Glad to exit before it reverse. Thank you.

Break Even Tue

Tuesday trade, long GBP/USD at GMT7:52 at 1.4465 with 60 pips profit target, however it was stopped at EP about an hour later. Though smaller time frame indicate possible reversal, the pair failed to move beyond the long term EMA suggesting that it is only a pullback. Managed the SL to EP in order to protect against any possible false signal. If the pair failed to move substantially in my direction within an hour after I have entered, possibly that it is a false signal or the trade could be caught in a side way trend. In either cases, it is better to take small losses or small wins or adjust SL to EP and ride it. I took the later option. Though there are many options available to you, sometimes it is hard to admit that you have made mistakes and accept the losses. And it take practice...

Fighting Temptation

Trade: Long
Pair: GBP/USD
Time: GMT 12:26
Price: 1.4420
PT: 1.4475 (55 pips)
SL: 1.4365 (55 pips)
Setup: MACD crossed up, Higher High, Higher Low, ADX up.

Though the bigger time frame outlook still indicate downtrend, therefore the smaller profit target for this trade. Gained 2.4% from this trade. It is better to move away from the trading screen after closing the trade to avoid the temptation to re-enter.

Week 87: 1-1=0

Had a setback in my progress this week. Lost all I gained from Week 86. Did not have the chance to trade yesterday, missed the start of the trend in EUR/USD.
Total pips of 113 were lost from last week trades and this reduced my portfolio by 7.2%. Too many mistakes were made. The emotion ran wild. The mind were not focused.
Terrible week.

One good trade is better than 4 bad trade

Yesterday, there were a total of 4 trades, all 4 of them were wrongly setup. Three trades managed to scalp 10 pips while the last trade, USD/JPY closed with 24 pips loss. Another frustrating day, damn...
XO#@#XX%#@%OX

But today managed to recover some losses this week. Shorted GBP/USD at GMT 8:30 today and closed with 40 pips gain. The pair has continued to trend lower at the moment of writing. In fact its 150 pips lower than my closing price.

Emotional Overtrading Hazard

Closed the AUD/USD trade with 27 pips loss after a two hour long emotional vs logical debate on the trade setup. As much as I had wanted to recover my earlier losses, I had to admit that I have made an irrational and careless trade. Anger and frustration are not the emotions you should experience when you enter a trade. That was the fourth trade of the day. Shortly after closing the trade, I scalped 17 pips from 2 GBP/USD pair. Altogether there were 6 trades.
Two major mistakes today, emotional and over trading.

MACD is important

Been careless today with the trade setup. Entered into the trade too early and disregarded the MACD signal. Price to pay is 5% of portfolio. Time at GMT 8:00 had been the determining trend and too many times i have entered too early without respect to the signals.
Shorted GBP/USD at GMT6:17 but it swiftly reversed to hit SL of 66 pips and immediately after that longed the same pair, this trade is closed faster at 49 pips loss within 10 minutes. Total loss so far has been -10.3% excluding a live trade on going.
Longed AUD/USD at GMT8:34 with SL of 100 pips and PT of 142 pips and judging by the signals, the trade is not working very well. Will see how it react during the US session.

AUD weakness

Started the with one break even on AUD/JPY pairs and a small loss on AUD/USD of 15 pips. The first trade was up 50+ pips at one moment but decided to let it run and it did run...out of steam. And it ended at my EP. Was tempted to close it but did not heed my inner voice. The trend started later than usual this week maybe due to Euro rescue package, UK parliament result, etc.

Even the BOE interest rate was a non event with no significant price movement.

Week 86: Gain 7.4%

Longed USD/JPY after the NFP announcement but ended up with break even as it did not managed to break the day's high. The numbers were positive, however unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed from 9.7% to 9.9%.

Finished the week with 7.4% gain on my portfolio. Has yet to reach the half way mark of my original capital. Four winning trades out of total seven this week with one break even. Overall pips gained is 102.

Europe's Debt Woes

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/02/weekinreview/02schwartz.html?ref=business

This is an interesting illustration of Europe's web of debt. Greek's debt woes now spreading to other nations as well. Last Tuesday Standard & Poor's downgraded Spanish and Portuguese debt. It would interesting to see how the EU plan to solve this.

The West Crisis

Shorted GBP/USD yesterday and only managed to gain 17 pips manually after it showed some signs of pulling back. Made a correct decision by exiting the trade manually as it was ranging for approximately 18 hours before it began to plummet. As I was watching the platform, I have missed out a 200+ pips movement in the pair. The weak Euro sentiment, Greek debt crisis, UK Election and fear of slowdown in China all contributed to the risk adverse sentiment.

No trade today. Unable to find the time to enter trade. Made a wise move here as my limit order would have hit SL if did not abort it.

A small win & A Bigger Lesson

Had 2 winning trades yesterday. Shorted EUR/USD and GBP/USD with 45 pips and 72 pips target respectively. However only EUR/USD managed to close with full PT while GBP/USD closed with 46 pips gain. Would have hit full PT if I did not close it manually. Its been a while since I have seen such big movement in a day. Should have more faith and confident with the signals, though sometimes I would rather close with smaller profit than nothing. Its always a battle within, this time fear got the better of me. Still lack a bit of composure when facing the trading platform. However I believe that when you are trading with the money you have won, you would have better composure than when you are trading with your own capital. It could be lack of trading experience or in my case lack of winning experience. With more winning trades under your belt, you should be able to tell if the signals are convincing enough.

After yesterday close, my portfolio now stands at -51.8%. Looking at opportunity to enter during the Euro session now.
;)

A small loss and a big lesson

Started the week with 2 losses and a win. Shorted GBP/USD at 1.5219 (GMT7:35) but closed it manually with 40 pips loss after the trend showing signs of reversal. Although it was more of a pullback, but I am not comfortable holding the trade overnight so closed it manually. The second trade is long EUR/USD at 1.3244 (GMT8:35) although there were hardly any signs of reversal for the pair yet. I was expecting a reversal whereas I should enter after the reversal signs were confirmed. My bad, lost 25 pips on this trade.
The final trade of the day was long USD/JPY at 94.15 (GMT11:15) and I closed it manually for 59 pips gain, almost even out the two losses earlier. A small loss and a big lesson.